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Egypt’s Foreign Policy Since 1979: Stability Over Ambition
The Camp David Legacy: Peace, Prosperity, and Retreat
The 1979 treaty with Israel didn’t just normalise relations between the two nations—it fundamentally reshaped Egypt’s place in the Middle East. Overnight, the country went from the vanguard of Arab nationalism under Gamal Abdel Nasser to a pariah in the Arab League. Yet for Egypt’s leaders, the trade-off was clear: American patronage and internal stability were worth the loss of regional influence.
• Egypt became the second-largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid after Israel, ensuring military and economic lifelines.
• The peace treaty allowed Cairo to demilitarise the Sinai and focus on domestic governance rather than external conflicts.
• But the price was steep—Egypt’s voice in pan-Arab affairs diminished, and its foreign policy became reactive rather than visionary.
The Mubarak Era: Neutrality as a Survival Strategy
Under Hosni Mubarak (1981-2011), Egypt perfected the art of strategic caution. While the Middle East convulsed with wars and revolutions, Mubarak’s Egypt avoided deep entanglements:
• Mediator, Not Maverick: Cairo positioned itself as a go-between in Palestinian-Israeli talks but rarely took bold stances.
• The Gulf Wars: Egypt joined the U.S.-led coalition in 1991—but only symbolically—and sat out the 2003 Iraq invasion entirely.
• Silence on Iran: Unlike Saudi Arabia or Iraq, Mubarak’s Egypt avoided direct confrontation with Tehran, even during the Iran-Iraq War.
The message was clear: Egypt would no longer fight other people’s battles.
The Arab Spring and Its Aftermath: An Islamist Departure from Tradition
The 2011 revolution briefly upended Egypt’s cautious foreign policy. Mohamed Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood government (2012-2013) sought to reassert Egypt’s regional adventurism in the pursuit of an Islamist foreign policy:
• Rebuilding ties with Iran and Hamas, breaking from decades of U.S.-aligned policy.
• Challenging Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
But the experiment was short-lived. Morsi’s ouster in 2013 and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rise restored the old playbook—stability over ambition.
Sisi’s Egypt: The Status Quo on Steroids
Under Sisi, Egypt has doubled down on its risk-averse approach:
• Deepening ties with Israel (particularly on Gaza security and Sinai counterterrorism).
• Avoiding regional wars (staying out of Syria, Yemen, and Libya beyond limited interventions).
• Egypt's restrained posture on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute reveals the limits of its status quo approach. While Cairo has consistently framed Ethiopia's Nile dam as an existential threat to its water security, it has so far conspicuously avoided military action. Recent developments - including Egypt's troop deployment to Somalia, interpreted by pro-government voices as a strategic counter to Ethiopia - suggest a potential shift in tactics. However, there remains no credible evidence that Egypt is preparing for direct military confrontation in the near future, maintaining its characteristic caution despite escalating rhetoric.
Even as the Middle East realigns—with normalisation deals, shifting alliances, and new conflicts—Egypt remains frozen in time, prioritising regime survival over geopolitical ambition.
The Perils of Passive Power
Egypt’s foreign policy since 1979 has been a masterclass in risk management—but also a story of squandered influence. While the Camp David Accords brought stability, they also locked Egypt into a defensive posture, where the fear of disruption outweighs the rewards of leadership.
Today, as regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE and Iran carve out assertive roles, Egypt remains a spectator rather than a shaper of the Middle East’s future. The question is no longer whether Egypt will reclaim its past prominence—but whether it even wants to.
A New Chapter? Sisi’s Calculated Gambit in the Gaza War
Egypt’s long-standing policy of cautious neutrality may be facing its most serious challenge—and opportunity—in decades. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, facing economic crisis and dwindling domestic support, appears to be testing a more assertive regional role amid the Israel-Hamas war, using the conflict to bolster his standing at home and abroad.
From Mediator to Moral Authority
For years, Egypt’s involvement in Gaza was transactional: it brokered ceasefires, controlled the Rafah crossing, and quietly cooperated with Israel on security—all while avoiding overt political alignment. But since October 7, Sisi has adopted a strikingly different tone:
• Public Condemnation of Israel and denying its right to exist: Breaking from decades of tempered diplomacy, Sisi has accused Israel of "collective punishment" and framed the war as an existential struggle for Palestinians, while allowing official clergy to outright deny Israel’s right to exist and declare their support for Hamas.
The Egyptian Grand Mufti posting with a map replacing Israel with “Palestine” on 29 March.
• Mass Protests (Officially Tolerated): Rare state-sanctioned demonstrations against Israel, including at border areas near Gaza, have allowed Egyptians to vent anger—a carefully managed outlet for frustrations that might otherwise target Sisi’s own government.
• Humanitarian Posturing: Egypt’s refusal to accept Palestinian refugees, framed as resistance to "ethnic cleansing," plays well domestically while subtly pressuring Washington.
A Bid for Regional Relevance
Sisi’s rhetoric isn’t just for domestic consumption—it’s an attempt to reclaim Egypt’s lapsed leadership in the Arab world:
• Contrast with Gulf States: While Saudi Arabia and the UAE hedge their positions, Egypt’s anti-Israel stance resonates on the Arab street, drawing implicit comparisons to Nasser’s legacy.
• Leveraging the U.S. Dilemma: By positioning Egypt as indispensable to ceasefire talks (while criticising Washington), Sisi extracts concessions—from IMF loan flexibility to muted criticism of his human rights record.
• The Somalia Gambit: Deploying troops near Ethiopia coincides with Gaza tensions, signalling that Egypt may no longer be content with passive deterrence in Nile disputes.
Limits of the Shift
Yet this remains tactical, not transformational:
• No Rupture with Israel: Security coordination, albeit more limited now, continues behind the scenes.
• Economic Realities Prevail: With over $165 billion in external debt, Egypt can’t afford true confrontation with Western backers.
• The Army Stays Home: Despite bluster, there’s no indication Egypt would directly intervene in Gaza or the Red Sea.
A Temporary Departure?
Sisi’s Gaza strategy reveals a leader adapting to survive—using nationalist fervour to distract from economic pain while testing how far Egypt can push without upending its status quo dependencies. Whether this marks a lasting shift or a fleeting crisis-mode posture depends on one factor: how much the West, especially the US, is willing to pay to keep Egypt quiet again.
In short, Egypt no longer leads the Arab world—it merely hopes to survive in it, while Sisi is discovering that, in a burning region, even bystanders can profit from the heat.
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